Who's most likely to move out of San Francisco?

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The data shows that residents in District 6 said they were more likely to move than residents in other neighborhoods.

The results of San Francisco’s 2013 City Survey Report, released this past spring, contain some interesting data about who is most likely to leave San Francisco in the next three years, suggesting that the demographic shift currently underway will continue.

Parents with small children, younger residents, recent transplants, and people who are having a tough time covering their basic expenses are the most likely to move out of San Francisco in the next three years, according to the survey results.

Also, residents of District 6, which encompasses SoMa and the Tenderloin, seemed to be more in flux than residents living in other neighborhoods. “District 6 contains the highest percentage of residents who report being likely to move out of the city in the next three years (26 percent),” according to the survey results, “while District 10 contains the lowest (15 percent).”

According to the survey, “Parents, and particularly parents of young children, indicate that they are either very or somewhat likely to move out of the city in the next three years at a higher rate than non-parents. Those with children under age six – those likely to enroll in school shortly … report a much higher likelihood of moving in the next three years than parents of older children.”

The survey also noted that “more recent residents, younger residents and those facing challenges covering their basic expenses” also reported being more likely than others to leave the city in the next three years.

Here’s some insight as to who’s having a tough time making ends meet. In Districts 9, 10, and 11, according to the survey data, between 20 and 25 percent of respondents said it was challenging to cover basic expenses.

What’s this data say about the future of San Francisco? Apparently mature, financially secure professionals who have neither children nor financial worries are here to stay. For people whose lives are a bit more complicated, a more relevant question to ask might be what the future holds for the East Bay.